Why does the strategy of betting “sure bets with stake 1/8" make no sense from the perspective of generating long-term profit?
In order to maintain a positive yield in the long term, it is necessary to have an strategy in selecting Tips to bet. If you are amateur bettor and you are playing for fun, you can bet every event and wait nervously for the result. However, in order to have long turn profit from Bookies, your tips have to be highest quality, calculated and with value behind. In the short term it makes sense to bet on strong favorites, but until the first lost, when all your statics and budget are going on “minus”. On the other hand, in the case of a win, the statistics do not significantly improve, because the odds for the favorites oscillate around 1/9; 1/8 and multiplying by the stake – the Yield increases by a maximum of several percent.
In this case, looking for valuable tips with odds around 1/1 brings tangible benefits.
Below is presented table with differences in the betting strategies. 10 events have been analyzed based on odds. The scope into table is from sure bets with low odds versus valuable tips sorted, looking from the level of profit achieved. For the purposes of the analysis, a series of 10 games was taken into consideration. Invested stakes can fluctuate from 1 to 10 – we have took 10.
The most important outcome is to present how many of these 10 games we are able to lose, so that at the end of the series we still have a profit. Therefore, the column Number of wing tips / effectiveness shows minimum number of events won / minimum percentage of effectiveness below which it’s not worth to invest anymore.
To understand the statistics, the table below explains the formulas used
Net profit; net loss = Ʃ (Odds * Stake – Stake)
Yield = Ʃ (profit – stake) / stake * 100%
Sure bets (in this case events with low odds)
The strategy of betting “sure bets" with the odds 1/8; 1/9. We are taking to events from Europe’s top leagues, for example table leaders with outsiders, the tip simply has to win. As you can see from the first 2 rows of the table, we cannot lose more than 2 tips in a series of 10 to keep positive Yield (-4%). Additionally, the maximum yield for all won tips is only 20%. Summing up, in order to achieve at least minimal profits in the long term, our effectiveness must be well above 80%. Such statistics are not possible in the long run.
Focusing on events with odds around 1/1 brings the most tangible benefits and generates the highest long-term profits. With an average odds 1/1 in a series of 10 games and with a 100% won tips, the profit is 100 and the yield is 100%. When betting on events with odds above 1/1, you can afford more losses in the series to continue generating profits. With 5 missed tips, we get 0, but with 6 won tips our yield is 20% and the profit is 20. To sum up, with the effectiveness slightly above 50%, we generate profits when playing types with odds above 1/1.
Yield vs Number of won games
It’s really worth to mention how the yield was achieved. Example: The yield of 20% from the first row of the table is the same as the second from the bottom and if we analyzed the tipsters results only based on the Yield value, we would say that they have the same statistics. It’s wrong thinking – if you take the number of tips won and the average odds – this are completely different betting strategies.
When betting valuable picks, you can afford a greater margin of errors, so in a series of 10 games, 5 or 6 can be lost with still having capital. In comparison, 2 lost “sure bets" changing your Yield below 0%, so now you can really forget about placing a fortune on Real Mary at 1/8.
At the end It’s worth to remind how Yield is growing for the series of 10 winning matches:
-with an average odds 1/5 it is 20%
-with an average odds 1/1 2.0 – 100%.
So, if your target is to achieve high yield, forget about the “sure bets". Also, when looking for tipsters whose analysis should be taken into account, in addition to Yield value, do not forget to pay attention to how it was generated.