There’s no need to be a specialist, be familiar with a given sport discipline to create reliable analysis and valuable betting tips. Of course, if someone is knowledgeable in a given discipline, primarily from a specific league, it always helps. Nevertheless in long term it limits and narrows the area of searching for valuable tips. Therefore, broad access to information, consistency in activity and using guidelines are much more important. From the Bettinglex side, we are listing valuable sources of information, we are defining the method for creating a good analysis, but it’s up to you to implement it into your work, what kind of strategy you will choose, and … how much £ you will earn. Check bellow’s methods to create more valuable betting slips.
What is the order in creating a reliable analysis of the event?
1 Continuous review sources of info
Real-time monitoring of media reports, source of information, matches previews, verification of found data – these are the areas of your interest to make your betting tickets at high quality. Our resources will certainly serve as valuable sources, but in the long run, each of you will be able to build their own knowledge database. The goal is to catch the key insiders called – game changer and filtered it in the information rumours and Fake News.
You are probably familiar with the term “insider”. If not, sport events that gain a definite favourite due to a combination of different circumstances, for example, a wave of injuries, red cards, infections, external factors, etc. are defined in such a way. Value tips events should be particularly taken into consideration because give the best chance for a positive result.
Looking for the interesting events to bet, it’s worth to compare odds at various sites (e.g. flashscore.co.uk, Oddsportal), as well as odds movements into bookmaker offer. Depending on time you have to conduct the analysis, you can start with events at which you observe significant changes in odds – the time needed to search for valuable information will be shortened. Another advantage is the quick filtering of matches, which are worth to take for analysis in the first prior. From the other hand the original odds has already dropped and investment in such an event will not bring high profit anymore. Therefore, if you have more time for analysis, you should start by looking for information regardless of what odds are offered for events. If you can find and confirm “game changer" information before Bookie, your potential profit may be several dozen percent higher.
2 Observation odds movements
Looking for a valuable tips from the odds changes perspective, make a preliminary filter and take only those with the largest odds fluctuation. This means that odds are changing 20% – 40% like example below. Lower odds fluctuations can be missed.
3 Verification of potential valuable bet
When a potential “promising tip" is found, it’s necessary to confirm the information, prove that odds changes are actually caused by team situations and other external reasons. It is important to check in several sources, for example: Compare info about changes in the match squad and injured players on the soccerway.com portal (on the specific team’s page the tab: Squad). Scan every player in terms of the number of appearances in matches, number of cards, age, current predisposition, etc.
Verify / confirm info on team website and Facebook account. If you bet on games from lower exotic leagues, it’s worth checking your team Facebook, Twitter accounts where pre-match reports and line-ups are published. This step is crucial, in the time of “fake news”, the goal is to confirm one more time found valuable tip.
The example at right shows the actual analysis of the team of Wisla Cracow (Poland) affected by injuries and exclusions (red markup below – OFF) compared to the squad reported on the match day (green markup – Will PLAY). Information based on Soccerway portal.
The analysis shows that from the 6 missing players, 3 of them are the key players – recently injured; 2 have – 4 match appearances; 1 is absent from the beginning of the season. Such an analysis can be done by everyone, regardless of their knowledge. By comparing statistics of individual players, without knowing them, at the end of the day you can answer if bet is valuable or not. Remember that in case of this analysis (and any other) last step is confirmation on the club’s official website above data by checking match-day squad.
4 Bet win probability estimation, setting the stake
Years of experience have allowed us to develop a stake matrix and categorize external circumstances influencing on the final results in terms of the probability of success. Invested money value should be estimated according to clear criteria that minimize the risk of failure. Therefore, when setting the stake, bellow’s categories should be taken into consideration:
| Stake | Stake value conditions |
|---|---|
| 1-3 | No strong evidence for advantage of particular opponent, unable to verify found information. Betting “Public Experts from TV". The tipster’s faith in victory. Referring to the influence of atmospheric and geographical factors. Predicting win of visiting team. Faith in break after a series of defeats / draws / wins. Public info about team weaknesses has been available for several days. Friendly games. Betting based only on dropped odds without checking the reason. Betting low level leagues – out of Top30 based on UEFA ranking. |
| 4-6 | Betting event does not contain conditions described in previous category stakes 1-3. Proven lack of 2-3 key players in one team. Betting for host win. Analysis of previous matches in terms of a series of wins, losses, no fixed H2H results or Related Bets. If H2H upcoming events looks to be fixed game or “related” bet – put a bet appropriately. |
| 7-9 | Proven lack of 4 and more key players from one team. Game for high stake. Events from top global leagues. Unexpected team news to situation into match-day squad – 1-2 hours before starting whistle (ex. Team manager decision to rest half of the key players). Checked conditions described in previous category stakes. |
| 10 | Proven lack of more than half the squad. “Letting go" of the match. Fulfilled requirements for previous stakes 7-9. This stake is also appropriate for so-called “fixed games” – however, in our case, it determines the most reliable analysis that meets the requirements set for the highest stakes. |
Classification of teams / leagues – avoiding the negative impact of different quality level teams into league. It’s called “madness" factor, where everyone can win with anyone regardless of the squad dedicated for match. For example, betting on the results in 3rd or 4th league matches, amateur leagues or leagues out of Top30 by UEFA ranking.
As a reminder it’s important to check constantly H2H results between opponents. There are the teams that have a friendly relation with each other in the form of giving back particular results. It can be seen by analyzing historical matches, where specific results cyclically appears. If we suspect such a result, the match should be skipped or from the other hand – just bet accordingly.
By implementing conditions above and keeping consistency in action, you are minimizing the risk of failure and your chances for winning are incomparably greater.
5 Placing a bet
The final step of the analysis is, of course, placing the previously estimated stake. You have to be fast when information found is really strong and you are estimating to bet stake 9 or 10. Remember to stay one step ahead of bookmaker in the race for really valuable tips. In the worst case, the bookmaker will drop odds by 90% or even remove the event from the offer. It’s worth act quickly, looking for events regardless of odds movements, have accounts in various bookmakers and pick this one who overslept with the odds reduction. Nevertheless, remember that the beauty of sport stick in the fact that sometimes unexpected results occur. Never invest all capital into one sure bet. Recommended practice is to split your budget and invest at once 10% – 20% from total, so in this case value of 20% of your budget can be stake 10.